Аглика Кънева
Abstract: In this paper, a forecast has been made of the change in the mortgage loans provided by banks in Bulgaria in a short-term period. The forecasting is implemented by trend models. The tendency of development in the mortgage loans has been modelled for the period 2007 – 2019. Based on the presumption that the established regularities will be preserved in the forecast period as well, an estimate has been developed for the future values of the return on equity of banks in 2020 and 2021.
Key words: mortgage loans; banks; forecast; trend models; Bulgaria
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